Can France betray Armenia under the geo-political conditions existing today in the South Caucasus?

 

A plain answer will be an unreserved YES. France did betray Armenia at the end of the “Cilicia Campaign” that lasted from January 1920 to February 1921, gradually surrendering the city of Marash to the Kemalist Turkish Army, followed by Urfa, and last but not least the city of Antep. Needless to mention that thousands of Armenians perished in the aftermath of surrendering each city to the Kemalist Army.

 Like the British Army, while pretending to protect the Christian minorities of the Ottoman Empire, the French Army was conducting secret negotiations with Mustafa Kemal with the clear goal of putting an end to the Kemalist close cooperation with The Soviet Union. So, if France placed a higher premium on its national interests in the 1920s, and sacrificed Armenian blood to protect vested French interests in the Middle East, it will make the same moves today.

Many French “Think Tanks’ with close ties to the French Intelligence Community, together with NGOs financed by France and freely operating in Armenia, are promoting the misleading argument that circumstances today are different, and the massacres that claimed the lives of thousands of Armenians during the “Cilicia Campaign”, will not happen again the day Aliyev invades Syunik to construct the Zangezur Corridor.

I don’t agree with the French assertion that France will not betray Armenia, the geo-political factors today in The Caucasus are different, and France will Intervene to contain or neutralize Azeri aggression. 

Between 2021 and 2023, Petro-Dictator Aliyev invaded Armenia, occupied more than 200Sq Km of Armenian sovereign land, killed hundreds of Armenian soldiers, unleashed his army on Artsakh after a 10-month siege, engaged in an “Ethnic Cleansing” of the indigenous Armenian population of Artsakh, and beyond “Lip Service” and “Crocodile Tears”, no tangible steps were adopted by the French political establishment under President Macron, to convey to the Azeri Fuehrer Aliyev the clear message “Stop or else face the wrath of France.”

In an opinion piece titled “Towards a Franco-Armenian Strategic Partnership?” published by Evnreport,

https://evnreport.com/opinion/towards-a-franco-armenian-strategic-partnership/

author Tigran Yegavian made several valid observations about France’s controversial dealings with Aliyev:

 - “While a European leader [Macron] says ‘never again’…We cannot be at the Tatev monastery one day and at the Chamber of Commerce of Baku the next.”              

 - “Azerbaijan must withdraw its forces from its positions in Armenia. Russia can no longer aid in peace. Azerbaijani forces must leave Armenia and France can work towards peace!”

How can France convince Aliyev by words only, not deeds, to put an end to his megalomaniac dream of establishing “Greater Azerbaijan/Bütöv Azərbaycan” an irredentist concept of uniting presumed historically Azerbaijani-inhabited lands stretching from Baku to Northern Iran, and encompassing every inch of Armenia’s 29,800 Sq Km sovereign territory.

 - “Once the time for emotion and solidarity passes, concrete action is long overdue. However, France seems isolated at the European level, resulting in slow progress. It’s regrettable that the European Parliament did not vote for an amendment requesting the suspension of the gas agreement between Europe and Azerbaijan.” 

A convenient excuse to do nothing by blaming the  European countries for being indifferent towards French enthusiasm to save Armenia from the voracious appetite of Petro-Dictator Aliyev.

 “In the words of writer Sylvain Tesson, France must choose between friendship with Armenia and business with Azerbaijan. To date and despite the proven deterioration of relations between Paris and Baku, France has not yet issued any sanctions, despite part of Armenia’s sovereign territory being under Azerbaijani military occupation.

 There has been no expulsion of the Azerbaijani ambassador to France, no mention of freezing Azerbaijani assets in Europe, no embargo on hydrocarbon imports, nor any talk of boycotting the next climate conference. It’s clear that promises only bind those who believe in them. The Armenian side must recognize the limits of French commitment and organize accordingly.”

 Now, let us address the unexpected French move that sent shock waves to the heart of the Greek military establishment last week (Jan 30/25), and thus far no one managed to comprehend why France will knowingly back stab Greece to defend Turkish interests.

 The scandal in the Greek media was labelled as the French “Meteor missile deal for Turkey.” For more details use the following link

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/greeks-fume-at-france-over-alleged-sale-of-missiles-to-turkey/

But first, let me elaborate on the general context behind the French betrayal of a “Strategic Partner” like Greece.

 On September 27, 2021 France signed with Greece what became known as “The Franco-Greek Defence Agreement.” Article 2 of the agreement highlighted clearly a crucial commitment made by both signatories: "The Parties shall provide each other with assistance, with all appropriate means at their disposal, if necessary by the use of armed force, if they jointly find that an armed aggression is taking place against the territory of one of the two, in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations".

 Based on the “Defence Agreement” and the reassurances that France will stand firmly behind Greece if the country is the victim of a Neo-Ottoman Turkish military aggression, Greece purchased advanced French military hardware totalling $3 billion Euros, including 24 Rafale fighter jets equipped with the state of the art long-range METEOR air-to-air missiles.

 The acquisition by Greece of the 24 Rafale jets was attached to the understanding that Meteor will not be sold to Turkey, simply because Greece cannot maintain a “Strategic Advantage” against The Turkish Air Force if Meteor is also sold to Turkey. With no strategic advantage Turkey will be tempted to invade Greek islands that have been a subject of dispute for several decades. Greek military experts underlined to France that “Any enhancement of Turkey’s air combat capabilities is perceived by Greece as a direct threat to its national security and strategic balance in the region.” 

 For a while France kept the door closed on the Turkish acquisition of The Meteor missile. But Turkey managed to use a big window of opportunity when it decided to modernize its air force with a fleet of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon Jets, a joint production venture involving the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain. 

 Turkey placed the order for 40 jets with Germany and used the multi billion deal to force Germany and the UK to pressure France for the green light to supply the Meteor with the Eurofighter Typhoon Jets. In the group of five (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) dozens of manufacturing facilities were employing thousands of workers and professionals to produce jets and missiles. Do you let your employees join the unemployment line-ups, or do you stab the Greeks in the back to generate more income to keep your factories running?

 France, like any other country facing the dilemma between honouring a promise and putting bread on the table of thousands of French families, decided to sell missiles to Turkey while clearly knowing the dire consequences Greece will have to face on the battlefield.

 The same position will be adopted by France the day Aliyev decides to invade Syunik. France will have to chose between sacrificing Armenia or endangering close to two billion dollars invested in the oil and gas industry of Azerbaijan.

 Can Pashinyan understand the bitter reality of placing very high hopes on promises that are mere hollow words?

 https://artsakhtheinadequateresponse.blogspot.com/2022/10/when-dimwitted-prime-minister-forges.html