Peace In Armenia & The 2026 Report Of The Office Of The Director Of National Intelligence (ODNI)

On March 18, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released the U.S. intelligence community's “2026 Annual Threat Assessment”, highlighting in a 33-page document what it views as the most significant national security threats (Domestic, International) facing the United States in 2026.

A key role in the preparation of the document was assigned to The CIA, and a full page (p 27) was devoted to the “Peace” process currently pursued by the government of PM Pashinyan with Azerbaijan’s Supreme Leader, Petro-Dictator Ilham Aliyev.

Before we delve into the details of the “Report,” I find it of utmost importance to highlight the fact that a pathological dependency does exist between The CIA, the institution that gathers information, analyzes the bits and pieces collected, and disseminates them to the political establishment. The leadership of The U.S. relies heavily on daily CIA briefings to shape critical decisions, supposedly for the collective well-being of the American nation.

Often, U.S. political leaders expect The CIA to provide reports and assessments that reflect what the “Administration” wants to hear, not the true nature of the changes evolving on the political landscape of the world, that may or may not have any relevance to the “National Security” of America. In other words, if the U.S. political leadership is interested in a convenient excuse to start a war, intelligence reports will be manufactured by The CIA to provide a convenient narrative to start a war. And if key American political actors need a convenient “Fairy Tale” to convince an audience that “Peace” will be established in a specific region of the world, The CIA will weave a story that complies with the immediate needs of the political leadership.

Of course, the argument made above is not a personal opinion devoid of historical facts. In October 1983 The U.S. invaded the tiny island of Grenada. Based on artificially inflated CIA reports, the Reagan administration determined that a minuscule island with a population of approximately 100,000 souls was a “National Security Threat” to America, the super power with a population of 300 million and the world’s biggest Navy and Air Force. The root of the problem was the ill-fated decision of Grenada’s government to build a new airport by relying on Cuban expertise instead of using a U.S. multinational corporation. The CIA determined that Grenada’s government was deliberately introducing socialism/communism to the island, and to contain the spread of Cuban and Soviet influence, Reagan ordered the invasion of the island and instated a government more predisposed to accommodate U.S. sensitivities.

Less than a decade after the Grenada invasion, more specifically in 1991, The CIA predicted an economic growth in The USSR when the country was standing near the edge of a total economic meltdown. At the behest of the “Administration” that was handing generously billions of dollars to the military-industrial complex, to fight the “Red Menace/Evil Empire” known as The Soviet Union, The CIA did not foresee the rapid collapse of the USSR and overestimated the strength of the Soviet economy, to generate a story that justifies the waste of valuable financial resources on an enemy lying on its deathbed. 

Then in 2003, The CIA manufactured the most artful fabrications (lies) indicating with absolute certainty that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Though UN weapons inspectors and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts, were unable to find any biological weapons or nuclear centrifuges on the ground in Iraq, the Bush administration ordered an invasion that destabilized an entire region, and claimed the lives of one million Iraqis in its aftermath. Meanwhile, 4,431 U.S. service members returned home in body bags, 31,994 American soldiers were so seriously wounded in action that they failed any form of reintegration into the civilian economy, and close to a Trillion dollars was wasted based on lies.

Fast forward to March 2026 and the most recent report titled “2026 Annual Threat Assessment.” The entire argument that the TRIPP accord signed in Washington D.C., back in 08 Aug 2025, will pave the way for a permanent “Peace” is nothing but a fancy castle with foundations resting on a sand bed.

The agreement clearly states that U.S. President Trump appended his signature to the document at stake as a WITNESS not as a GUARANTOR. Meaning, that no one will come to the rescue of Armenia, the day Petro-Dictator Aliyev decides to grab Syunik and pursue the dream of building the mirage called Greater Azerbaijan/Bütöv Azərbaycan.

Back in April 2023, during a speech in the National Assembly of Armenia, PM Pashinyan emphasized the following critical point about the “Peace Treaty” his government was determined to pursue with Azerbaijan:

There is an absolute need to have “International Mechanisms” that will guarantee the proper implementation of the “Peace Treaty”. Without such mechanisms enjoying the full support of The EU and/or The United States, Pashinyan pointed out that “...war or new escalation could erupt the next day of the signing of the treaty."

Today, with an unprecedented zeal, Pashinyan is chasing an illusory “Peace” with Aliyev, without any European or US guarantor willing to challenge the whimsical demands of Aliyev, from refusal to withdraw his troops from more than 200Sq Km of Armenian sovereign land occupied since 2021, to the creation of a new “Armenian Constitution” with NO reference to Artsakh, to the resettlement in Armenia of more than 300,000 Azerbaijani citizens who were supposedly evicted from “Western Azerbaijan" (Armenia) during the First Artsakh War.

Pashinyan has already taken a set of measures to accommodate the return of 300,000 Western Azerbaijanis, in the border towns he plans to depopulate, slowly but surely. For more details read: "Schools Closed To Accommodate 300,000 Azeris In Armenia"

The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment failed to mention two critical points:

- If Iran wins the current “War of Choice” initiated by Trump on Feb 28, there will be NO peace with any form of U.S. presence right at the Armenian-Iranian border. Iran repeatedly told Pashinyan’s government that any third party presence at its doorstep will be stubbornly opposed and considered a “Red Line.”

- China knows well that TRIPP is not strictly a project to open a set of roads that will improve the movement of goods and services from one country to another. Under the appropriate geopolitical conditions, it will be used to trigger a major political unrest in China. For more details, read the article titled “The Zangezur Corridor And A Future Civil War In China"

If one pays close attention to the concerns of the Chinese and Iranian political leadership, unavoidably we are forced to assume that the the "Sword of Damocles" is hanging over the head of Armenia, and TRIPP, instead of paving the way for a “Peace”, it will create a fertile ground for bloody confrontations between regional actors, and Armenia will end up paying an exorbitant price for the myopic foreign policy mistakes of Nikol Pashinyan.

Granted bullets, suicide drones, artillery shells are no longer targeting the population of Stepanakert, not because Aliyev has decided to end his hatred for Artsakh in particular and Armenians in general, but simply because 120,000 were exposed to an “Ethic Cleansing” and the land was depopulated from its indigenous Armenian population. The 2026 Report acknowledges this tragic reality in a well-tailored diplomatic language stating that:“In 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan militarily retook control of its Nagorno-Karabakh region from an ethnic Armenian population supported by Yerevan.”

And if the US intelligence community is under the impression that “Since 8 August, both sides have appeared willing to maintain the momentum from the Peace Summit [08 Aug 2025]” it is strictly due to Aliyev’s desire to maintain a “Manchurian Candidate” in The Office of The Prime Minister of Armenia, and the need to enhance Pashinyan’s chances for re-election of 07 June 2026.

Finally, I am glad that the U.S. Intelligence community is delivering to our attention the tenuous aspect of the “Peace Project” by indicating that “There are still hurdles to the final conclusion of a peace deal. For example, President Aliyev continues to insist that Armenia change its constitution to remove a reference that he characterizes as claiming Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Armenia, a step which would require Armenia to hold a constitutional referendum whose passage is not guaranteed.”

Let us focus on the fact that before we confront the issue of the “Referendum” drive initiated by the Pashinyan government, we need to ask ourselves the following question: Do we want an abomination named Nikol Pashinyan to remain in power beyond the 07 June 2026 elections? You might be able to find the answer in the following article:Can A Bad Tree Like Pashinyan Give Armenia Good Fruits?