India Is Wooing Petro-Dictator Aliyev

 In January 2025, a decision made by French President Macron triggered shock waves in the entire political landscape of Greece. The top brass of the Greek Armed Forces failed to comprehend why France knowingly back stabbed Greece to defend Franco-Turkish interests. The scandal in the Greek media was labeled as the French “Meteor missile deal for Turkey.”

But first, let me elaborate on the general context behind the French betrayal of a “Strategic Partner” like Greece.

On September 27, 2021 France signed with Greece what became known as “The Franco-Greek Defense Agreement.” Article 2 of the agreement highlighted clearly a crucial commitment made by both signatories: "The Parties shall provide each other with assistance, with all appropriate means at their disposal, if necessary by the use of armed force, if they jointly find that an armed aggression is taking place against the territory of one of the two, in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations".

Based on the “Defense Agreement” and the reassurances that France will stand firmly behind Greece if the country is the victim of a Neo-Ottoman Turkish military aggression, Greece purchased advanced French military hardware totaling $3 billion Euros, including 24 Rafale fighter jets equipped with the state of the art long-range METEOR air-to-air missiles.

The acquisition by Greece of the 24 Rafale jets was attached to French reassurances that Meteor will not be sold to Turkey, simply because Greece cannot maintain a “Strategic Advantage” against The Turkish Air Force if Meteor is also sold to Turkey. With no strategic advantage, enjoyed by the Greek Air Force, Turkey will be tempted to invade Greek islands that have been a subject of dispute for several decades. Greek military experts underlined to France that “Any enhancement of Turkey’s air combat capabilities is perceived by Greece as a direct threat to its national security and strategic balance in the region.”

For a while France kept the door closed on the Turkish acquisition of The Meteor missile. But Turkey managed to use a big window of opportunity when it decided to modernize its air force with a fleet of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon Jets, a joint production venture involving the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain.

Turkey placed the order for 40 jets with Germany and used the multi billion deal to force Germany and the UK to pressure France for the green light to supply the Meteor with the Eurofighter Typhoon Jets. In the group of five (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) dozens of manufacturing facilities were employing thousands of workers and professionals to produce jets and missiles. All five countries faced the following critical questions: Do you let your employees join the unemployment line-ups, or do you stab the Greeks in the back to generate more income to keep your factories running?

France, like any other country facing the dilemma between honoring a promise and putting bread on the table of thousands of French families, decided to sell missiles to Turkey while clearly knowing the dire consequences Greece will have to face on the battlefield. In other words, narrow French economic interests outweighed any “Defense Pact” signed with Greece, and if thousands of Greeks lose their lives with the strategic advantage gained by Turkey, well, tough luck.

Currently, PM Pashinyan is in France attending the 9th annual Paris Peace Forum (10-11 Nov), and will be heading to Turkey once the Forum is over. Can Pashinyan understand the bitter reality of placing very high hopes on empty promises that are mere hollow words? Has he ever consulted the pages of Armenian history? Did he ever encounter the following historical facts?

France did betray Armenia at the end of the “Cilicia Campaign” that lasted from January 1920 to February 1921, gradually surrendering the city of Marash to the Kemalist Turkish Army, followed by Urfa, and last but not least the city of Antep. Needless to mention that thousands of Armenians perished in the aftermath of surrendering each city to the Kemalist Army.

Like the British Army, while pretending to protect the Christian minorities of the Ottoman Empire, the French Army was conducting secret negotiations with Mustafa Kemal with the clear goal of putting an end to the Kemalist close cooperation with The Soviet Union. So, if France placed a higher premium on its national interests in the 1920s, and sacrificed Armenian blood to protect vested French interests in the Middle East, it will make the same moves today without blinking an eye.

Here, it will be very appropriate to highlight the statement made by Mr. Tigran Yegavian, who authored an article titled “Towards a Franco-Armenian Strategic Partnership?” and analyzed France’s controversial dealings with Aliyev: “While a European leader [Macron] says ‘never again’…We cannot be at the Tatev monastery one day and at the Chamber of Commerce of Baku the next.”

Now, the lessons of the French experience apply to the most recent decisions shaped and colored by India in October 2026, when India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Baku, with the clear political agenda of setting aside past tensions and differences, deepening cooperation on trade, energy, transport, and people-to-people ties, and boosting bilateral trade from $401 million in 2025 to $600 million by the end of 2026.

Can India sign arm deals with Armenia and shake hands with Pashinyan, while wooing Petro-Dictator Aliyev? Or should we wake up from our slumber and make our peace with the possibility that, like France, India may supply the same weapons to Aliyev for the right price, and thus eliminate the “Advantage” Indian weapons provided to the Armenian Armed Forces?Are we ready for the day when India will blocks any weapon transfer to Armenia, after Aliyev greases, with the right financial incentives, the pockets of decision makers in New Delhi?

When a nation fails to learn anything from the lessons of history, unavoidably it will repeat the same old mistakes, but this time around the consequences of such mistakes will be more disastrous.

Albert Einstein was right when he insisted that “The only thing more dangerous than ignorance is arrogance.” PM Pashinyan is arrogantly insiting that France, The UK, The EU, The US, and India will all run to the rescue of Armenia, when Iran launches an anticipated offensive to disrupt Armenia’s TRIPP project.