Pashinyan, The Normalcy Bias, And The Boiling Frog

 

It all started with an interesting Facebook article published by Hovik Manucharyan on 18 Jan 2026. here is the unedited full text:

Normalcy Bias! It is the belief that because things look “normal” today, they will remain so tomorrow, even when all the warning signs point to the opposite.

History provides several examples of this phenomenon:

- Kodak celebrated quarterly profits while digital photography quietly rendered its core business obsolete.

- Nokia dominated the global mobile phone market but failed to recognize the strategic shift that ultimately erased its dominance.

- Blockbuster focused on optimizing store performance while its entire business model was being replaced.

The same pattern appears in states and societies.

Yes, life is busy. Careers must be built. Families must be supported. Wine festivals must be attended. Geopolitics feels “above our pay grade.” Someone else will handle it.

And this folks, is how slow-motion disasters happen.

Which raises an uncomfortable leadership question:

If we can recognize normalcy bias in failed companies and failed states after the fact, why is it so hard to see it while we are living inside it?

Personal Opinion:

Sometimes, we need to rely on parables promoted in the popular literature, to understand the twisted logic of human beings and the march of folly they join after buying the grandiose promises of sociopathic demagogue leaders like PM Pashinyan.

“Normalcy Bias” can be explained by the story of “The Frog And The Boiling Water.” The Frog thrown in a container of boiling water, will jump out immediately. Placed in a cool water that is gradually heated, the frog does not perceive the danger and stays until it is cooked to death. The metaphor is a stark reminder of how people ignore a slowly creeping danger, until it's too late to escape. It is a cautionary tale of how indifference, apathy, inaction, and self-deception blind individuals and societies to existing threats.

Applied to Armenia, we allowed a demagogue sociopath named Nikol Pashinyan to enter triumphantly The Office of The Prime Minister of Armenia following the “Velvet Revolution of 2018“ a.k.a “The Turco-Azeri Revolution of 2018.“

Pashinyan placed the nation in a cold water in 2019, gradually increased the heat and by the end of the 44-Day War in Nov.2020 we lost 5,000 brave Armenian soldiers and 10,000 more were maimed and failed the reintegration into a civilian life and economy.

While the “Trilateral Ceasefire Agreement" signed on Nov. 09 2020 froze the Artsakh Conflict for five years, in October 2022, in the City of Prague Pashinyan sold Artsakh to Aliyev and endorsed the narrative that Artsakh is part and parcel of Azerbaijan’s territorial sovereignty.

Between 2022 and 2023 Aliyev occupied more than 200Sq Km of Armenian sovereign territory, and Pashinyan refused to challenge the Petro-Dictator of Baku-Ilham Aliyev.

In September 2023, Pashinyan watched with callous indifference the “Ethnic Cleansing” of Artsakh, and remained undisturbed by the exodus of 130,000 Artsakhtsis who were forced to seek refuge in Armenia.

In mid 2025 Pashinyan started a crusade to destroy The Armenian Apostolic Church-the soul of Armenia, after he crushed the shield of our nation-The Armed Forces of Armenia.

Slowly but surely, Pashinyan is increasing the temperature of the boiling water, while the frog is indifferent to the fact that since 2018, Nikol has been selling Armenia, piece by piece to the enemy in return for nothing. He is determined to destroy the Third Republic and erect on its ruins the Fourth Republic or the “Real Armenia” where Armenians have no identity and Armenia will be the newest Villayet of Turkey called Ermenistan.

Do we jump out of the boiling water and banish Pashinyan from the political landscape of Armenia via the elections of June 2026? Or do we bury our heads in the sand and pretend that there are no immediate dangers threatening the very existence of a nation?

You might be able to find the answer in the following article:

Can A Bad Tree Like Pashinyan Give Armenia Good Fruits? 

 


 

 




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