Wars Are Financial Investments

 

Almost a year ago, it was obvious to me that America has a vested interest in triggering a “War of Choice” with Iran, and under one narrative or another, the U.S. Administration will launch a war to cripple Iran’s oil exporting capacity, and create a serious shortage on the international oil market.

I wrote the following Facebook post, published one year ago, in response to a docu-video produced by Prof. Abraham Gasparyan, who indicated in the video (after the 40 minutes mark) that the possibility of a U.S.-Iranian military confrontation is too remote, and highly unlikely to happen. The following is my post reproduced in full:

While I have a tremendous respect for Prof. Gasparyan’s understanding of international relations, and the fact that all wars are based on rational calculations of national interests, I respectfully disagree with his argument that the United States of America has no vested interest in destroying Iran.

America has a long list of reasons and benefits centered on a war with Iran that can choke the Strait of Hormuz, where 40% of the crude oil that reaches Europe has to cross the strategic strait.

Let us remember the threat conveyed in December 2024 by President elect Trump to European leaders: “EU member states must purchase more oil and gas from the United States. Otherwise, tariffs will be imposed…𝐈 𝐭𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐮𝐩 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞-𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐞 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐠𝐚𝐬. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!"

Also, blocking the Strait of Hormuz under war conditions will seriously undermine the Chinese economy, and we all know that the Guru’s of Trump’s foreign policy have declared since January 2025 that the next “Cold War” waged by the US will focus on China not Putin’s Russia. Disrupting oil supplies to China are the first step required to sap the foundations of the Chinese industrial output and weaken that country’s competition with America.

Today, President Trump is aiming to surpass the record oil output scored by US oil producers at the end of his first term in the “Oval Office” (2016-2020), a blistering amount of 13.1 million barrels per day (BPD), a volume that surpasses the daily production of Russia and Saudi Arabia, thus making America the biggest oil producer in the world.

We all know that producing is not enough for making a hefty profit;

a) You need access to more markets.

b) You need to restrict the flow of oil from producing countries to the international market.

America for the last two decades managed to foment wars and/or political unrest to impose crippling restrictions on many oil producing countries such as Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela. 𝐒𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐥 𝐨𝐟 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚’𝐬 𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭, 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐫, 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐛𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐩 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐰 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐚𝐩 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭. (End of the Facebook Post)

Today, we can make a similar prediction about Israel’s attempt to annex Southern Lebanon. With or without the U.S. support, Israel will continue relentlessly the goal of eliminating and eradicating Hezbollah from the political landscape of Lebanon.

Without paralyzing Iran and eradicating Hezbollah presence in Lebanon, Bibi will be unable to exploit the natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean sea, specifically in the area spanning the maritime boundaries of Israel, Cyprus, and Lebanon.

This "energy triangle" known also as the “Levant Basin” is estimated to contain up to 122 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of technically recoverable gas, potentially shifting the three countries from energy dependence to energy exporting hubs, specifically focused on the lucrative European market.

Israel has invested billions of dollars in costly wars destined to eliminate three potential threats that can seriously grind to a halt its over ambitious plans to exploit the gas of the “Levant Basin”: Hamas, Hezbollah, and Turkey.

While Turkey can display a flexibility over the issue of Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) obstacle and negotiate with the Jewish State a mutually beneficial arrangement, Hamas and Hezbollah, with a few missile strikes, can seriously harm complex installations (Offshore Rigs, Platforms) that may take several months to build, but only minutes to destroy. Thus the need to cripple Iran, the main backer of the two groups (Hamas, Hezbollah) who are refusing to die despite the draconian efforts of the IDF, and continuing to pause serious risks to Israeli investors and their international partners.

Remember, wars are very costly endeavors. You don’t invest in wars if you cannot extract from your military exploits your initial monetary investment, plus a hefty profit. Of course you are not going to tell the Israeli soldier that he/she will be dying to make rich Israeli investors richer, so you will dip your financial ambitions in a patriotic sauce, and insist that soldiers will sacrifice their lives for the glory of building “Eretz Israel.”