US Plans For The Caucasus & The Turkish Foreign Policy Doctrine Called "The World Is Bigger Than Five"
For a better understanding of the general context of my article, I strongly encourage readers to review the opinions expressed by Prof. Suren Sargsyan in his article titled
"The Strategic Interests of the United States in the South Caucasus Region"
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Prof. Sargsyan is explaining in his article, with absolute clarity, US intentions in The South Caucasus region. Two fundamental goals, have been pursued with different intensity by a long list of US Administrations since the collapse of The Soviet Empire:
a) reduction of Russia’s influence and preferrably the expulsion of Russia from the South Caucasus region entirely.
b) the strategic containment or, if possible, the isolation and the collapse of The Islamic Republic of Iran.
It is very puzzling that Prof. Sargsyan does not mention in the article, even once, the name of Petro Dictator Aliyev and the personal fiefdom he controls named Azerbaijan Inc. I am not sure why Prof. Sargsyan, intentionally or unintentionally, did not include Aliyev in the big picture of his analysis of The US ambitions in the South Caucasus. After all Aliyev, with the instigation of Turkey, conveyed on multiple occasions, explicity or implicitly, his ambitions of building an Azerbaijani Empire that includes all the Azeris living south of the Arax river. A grandiose dream of irredentism that can piggyback on The US determination to change the geopolitical realities of the region.
Aliyev is a Petro Dictator who inherited from his father a "Dynasty" resting on the strong foundations of "The Personality Cult", with the key component of the hero leader who will restore the glory of a nation based on an agenda of permanent territorial expansionism. Without pursuing permanent expansionism at the expense of Armenia and Iran, Aliyev's regime will collapse and Western investments in the Azeri oil industry, in excess of 200 billion dollars since independence, will be seriously threatened.
Today, The US is willing to eliminate an autocrat like Putin from the South Caucasus only to allow another kleptocrat to pursue his grandiose dreams of permanent expansion, an obsession that may easily trigger an internal upheaval and pave the way for the collapse of the Aliyev Dynasty, an event that will unavoidably upset US plans in the region.
Another key factor Prof. Sargsyan omits is the current government of PM Pashinyan. Believing that the "Populist" mediocre journalist turned politician, enjoys a solid mandate to shape the destiny of Armenia, The US and many so called "Western Democracies" have assumed that Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party (CCP) are solid partners who have expressed a clear aversion to Russian influence in Armenia, and are willing to salute the flag of the highest bidder for their services, if the right price is paid and a clear convergence of goals expressed.
American reliance on PM Pashinyan's claims that he is a populist leader who won a "Landslide Victory" and a popular support to lead the country, is building a castle on sands. The final figures, released by the Central Election Commission of Armenia (CEC) and other authoritative sources, do not support the delusional claims made by Mr. Pashinyan that “The People of Armenia” reached the verdict that he has to stay at the helm of Armenia.
Let us analyze the evidence available, and then connect the dots between delusions of grandeur, the absence of any facts supporting Mr. Pashinyan's claims, and his personal conviction that he is “The Chosen” prophet from Ijevan entrusted with the task of building a new empire for Armenia.
Of the 2.6 million eligible voters in Armenia slightly less than 49% did cast votes-1,273,859. Out of the 1,273,859 Armenians who performed their civic duty only 687,414 supported Mr. Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party (CCP). When 1 out of 4 Armenians supported Mr. Pashinyan and The CCP, how can one jump to the conclusion that a “Popular Mandate” secured a landslide victory for Prime Minister Pashinyan?
In the final figures released by The CEC there isn't a single shred of evidence supporting Mr. Pashinyan's claim that he has a “Popular Mandate” to govern Armenia. He managed to put together enough votes, to continue legitimately his occupation of The Office of The Prime Minister of Armenia. At any moment in time, with or without interference from outside powers, those who refrained from voting and those who voted for the opposition can find a common purpose and dismantle all the policies implemented by Pashinyan via the use of “The Tyranny of The Majority”, not popular consent. Again, US plans will collapse with the removal from power of PM Pashinyan, and the ascent of a new figure with non-existent sympathies for US ambitions in The South Caucasus.
Obviously, if different US Administrations have been pursuing since the 1990s goals (a) and (b) mentioned above, they failed to reach a reasonable level of success after almost three decades of trying to isolate and permanently remove Russia from The South Caucasus, and four decades of hard work to destroy The Islamic Revolution of The Ayatollahs in Iran. Why? The answer is very simple: The US is pinning its hopes of success on the "loyal" cooperation of a key ally (Erdogan) who is willing and ready, without the blink of an eye, to monetize his foreign policy by batting for both sides of the two conflicts- US/Russia, US/Iran.
Turkey has extensively betrayed US interests in The South Caucasus since Erdogan's dominance of Turkish politics almost two decades ago. Since 2010 many journalists covering events and developments in the Middle East, tried to warn Western Intelligence Agencies about the Turkish refusal to comply with any sanctions or trade restrictions imposed on Iran. Turkish defiance was not an empty threat. High volume of smuggling activities were conducted under the watchful eyes of Turkish Border Guards and Turkish Intelligence community with the full blessing of Ankara.
In the early days of 2010, following a Turkish vote against UN sanctions imposed on Iran, many Iranian merchants/Quds Force Operatives had established legitimate trade companies in the Turkish border town of Yuksekova where “One Iranian businessman says he can transfer anything overnight to Iran across the mountains, even a machine as big as a bulldozer.”
Iranian operatives did not confine their activities to the border towns of Turkey. In the heart of Istanbul, and more specifically in a district known as Aksaray, known to locals as “Little Tehran”, many Iranian operatives/businessmen opened “cargo houses” or warehousing facilities prior to 2010. An Iranian operative/businessman known as Mahmud confirmed that just 10% of his goods go to Iran legally. When asked about the nature of the goods he smuggles to Iran from Turkey, Mahmud replied:
"I export strategic equipment, like aeroplane parts, to Iran...Those companies would never sell their goods to Iran - because they have American investors...How do we do it? A company like mine - we buy the equipment under the name of a Turkish company and the paperwork shows the destination is another country. But in fact the load ends up in Iran. We charge them 80% over the market price, but they need it - so they pay."
For those who are interested in learning more about the tremendous contributions made by Turkey to the modernization of The Air Force of The Islamic Republic of Iran read the following articles:
“Air Force Modernization”
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/airforce-modernization.htm
“Aircraft Spare Parts Acquisition”
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/airforce-tech.htm
“How Iran Is Taking Ancient F-14 Tomcats and Making Them Better “
https://news.yahoo.com/iran-taking-ancient-f-14-094700813.html
In November 2018 the Neo-Ottoman Sultan Erdogan proudly displayed his disgust of US sanctions imposed on Iran by classifying America's policy as an “Imperialist” maneuver and reiterating to the US State Department the following statement:
“We do not want to live in an imperialist world...We will absolutely not abide by such sanctions.”
Sultan Erdogan's defiance of The US sanctions was not strictly based on greed, necessity to buy Iranian gas to provide heat to Turkish dwellings, or make his rich cronies richer. His policy was an integral part of his hatred of The US/NATO in particular and European democracies in general. His personal hatred was well known to all Western Intelligence agencies, and they all reported to their political leaderships the following promise he made (then Prime Minister) to his inner circle, discovered during an extensive Turkish investigation (2011) probing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force activities in Turkey:
“When I get a chance, I know what to do with NATO, Europe and Israel. I’m going to f**k their mothers. NATO and the US are as terrorist as Israel”
https://nordicmonitor.com/2021/06/turkish-president-erdogan-im-going-to-fck-nato-europe-and-israel/
Of course Turkey adopted the same scenario with Russia with the full knowledge of The US Intelligence community, and beyond an abundance of verbal warnings directed to Turkey, America failed to contain the damages imposed by Tureky on US Foreign Policy in The Caucasus in particular, and world wide in general.
Turkish contempt for American embargos and sanctions on Iran were not the only act of defiance and contempt directed against successive US Administrations. Erdogan wanted to reinforce the notion that no power can impose any condition on Turkey, and his regime was proceeding at full speed with the purchase of S400 Air Defence systems from Russia, despite extensive warning from The US that the deal with Putin can render, in practical terms, NATO's entire Air Defence System vulnerable to Russian penetration.
Sutlan Erdogan's brazen contempt for NATO and The West was designed to usher the new era of Turkish foreign policy known as "The World Is Bigger Than Five". The details of the new policy were announced in October 2018, and the new measures outlined reflected a radical departure from the traditional values defended by Western Democracies/NATO.
Since October 2018 Sultan Erdogan made it clear that he is no longer governing the country based on the Democratic principle of exercising power with the consent of the populace. Presidential decrees became the norm, and unchecked authority became wedded to uninhibited suppression of any criticism addressed to the validity of the new rules and regulations imposed by Sultan Erdogan.
The new rules governing “Turkish Democracy” which were nothing short of a clear contempt of democracy, did not upset Western Democracies, or NATO the alliance dedicated to the defence of democratic principles literally crushed by Sultan Erdogan, within the political landscape of Turkey.
What are the key components of the new Turkish motto "The World Is Bigger Than Five":
a) Turkey, the new rising power of the 21st century/the new bully on the bloc, can no longer respect rules and regulations imposed on the rest of the world by the victorious powers of WWII.
b) To distinguish itself from common bullies and criminals running dictatorial regimes all over the world, Turkey waved the flag of "a new JUST international order" that the United Nations in general, and The UN Security Council (UNSC) in particular failed to provide since 1945 to the present.
c) In a statement made on September 24, 2014 at The UN General Assembly, Sultan Erdogan articulated the first objections to the unfair system established by The UN, by pointing out that the world has been unable to cope with most political upheavals costing thousands of lives because of the "Privilged" positions occupied by the five Permanent Members (P-5) of The UNSC namely the United States (U.S.), United Kingdom (UK), France, China, and Russia.
According to Sultan Erdogan, the veto power enjoyed by the Permanent Members has made it next to impossible to solve “The Palestinian Problem”, a cause very close to the heart of Sultan Erdogan, who blamed the lack of the effective solution, since the birth of The State of Israel in 1948, on the unjust privileges enjoyed by The P-5.
d) On September 20, 2016, Erdogan reiterated his frustration with the outmoded, useless, unjust institution called The UN, by insisting that urgent reforms must be implemented to reshape The UNSC. According to the Sultan “A Security Council that does not represent the entire world can never serve to re-establish peace and justice around the world.” Meaning, since 1945 major changes and shifts in the geopolitical conditions of the world propelled to positions of power new actors such as Turkey, and Turkey cannot accept a marginal role in an international system where the loot is not distributed fairly and evenly between those who wield military power wrapped in all kinds of colourful “Just & Noble Causes”.
Erdogan insisted clearly that “...humanity should no longer be held captive to the will of the five permanent members in the UNSC.” A euphemism meaning Turkish political ambitions, territorial expansionism from Greece to North Africa, from The South Caucasus to the gates of Central Asia (STAN countries), cannot and will not be restrained by the will of The Permanent Members (P-5).
e) Turkish Foreign Policy Gurus, with the clear intention of tarnishing the reputation of The UN and The UNSC, cited and attributed “the arbitrary invasion of Iraq” by The U.S. in 2003, to The UN’s impotence in stopping the tragic occupation despite the fact that The UNSC never gave the green light to The US to attack Iraq. Conclusion: If The US can act on the international scene with total indifference to existing rules and regulations established by The UN, why can’t Turkey adopt the same measures in its foreign policy?
f) Turkey, after decades of closely monitoring the institutional failures of The UN became convinced that “the Council [P-5] was created to help the Great Powers impose their vision of global order on the rest of the world.” The time has come for Turkey to impose its own vision of “Global Order” on the rest of the world.
I am not sure if PM Pashinyan and his foreign policy advisers read any document, from a Turkish or a foreign source, analyzing Turkey’s new doctrine “The World Is Bigger Than Five”. Had he managed to familiarize himself with the expansionist intentions of his neighbours (Turkey, Azerbaijan) he would have avoided the dissemination of the wishful thinking that The West, with the full support of NATO, will run to The South Caucasus to save a fledgling democracy called Armenia, from the claws of a beast determined to eliminate Armenia. The only NATO Army that will enter Armenia will be The Armed Forces of Turkey, with the distinct mission to finish what Talaat Pasha failed to achieve in 1915-the total annihilation of the Armenian nation from the landscape of The South Caucasus.
But before obliterating Armenia, The West will manipulate wimps like PM Pashinyan to destroy Iran and expel Russia from The South Caucasus. Once Pashinyan outlives his usefulness for The West, Pashinyan and Armenia will savour the wrath of Turkey.
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