Is “Normalization” With Turkey The Only Option For PM Pashinyan?
For the last several months, we often heard from PM Pashinyan and the dim witted scoundrels running his government, that “Normalization” of diplomatic relations with Turkey is very important to build a solid economy and bring an unprecedented prosperity that will turn the desolate villages of Armenia into the land of honey and milk, and foreign investments will turn Yerevan into a 21st century Garden of Eden where the mighty green dollar will grow on trees.
Pashinyan accepts the fact that the “Trilateral Capitulation Agreement” he signed back in November 09, 2020 does not require, under any of its clauses, a “Normalization” of diplomatic relations with Turkey. The word Turkey is not even mentioned once in the agreement.
The concept of “Normalization” though attempted in the past by The US administration, under President Obama, was condemned to the garbage bin of history, when a long list of reasons blocked the ratification process by the parliaments of both countries.
Following Pashinyan’s return to power in June 2021, The US and The European Union (EU) took active measures to revive the “Normalization” concept, and practical steps were adopted, initially through back channels, to give the concept a solid momentum with the clear goal of turning it into a concrete reality.
Pashinyan was showered with loans and grants provided by The EU and The US for his preliminary endorsement of the “Normalization Process”. He took the bait without realizing that the poison was dipped in honey to make it more palatable to his taste. No one dared to ask him the following crucial questions:
(a) How did Armenia’s economy thrive for the last three decades (since independence) with sealed borders between Armenia and Turkey?
(b) Where is the study endorsing with clear statistical figures the assertion that “Normalization” will usher an unprecedented growth in the Armenian economy?
(c) Where is the “Risk Analysis” of the impact that “Normalization” will have on the balance of power in The Caucasus?
(d) Why pursue a “Normalization” process with an enemy (Erdogan) who claims that he is the proud descendent of the Red Sultan, Sultan Abdulhamid II, when another option does exist and requires a cooperation with regimes (Iran/India) that never shared with Turkey the absurd logic that the best way to solve The Armenian Problem is to wipe off Armenians from the map of The Caucasus?
What is the “Iran/India” option? In diplomatic circles it is known as "Persian Gulf - Black Sea Corridor”. India, with massive financial and engineering resources developed the Iranian Port of Chabahar. With a solid land link between Armenia and Iran, the Chabahar Port can be very valuable for exporting Armenian goods that can be transported through Iranian territory to the Black Sea and then to any final destination on the international market. Armenia can also import vital commodities through the Chabahar Port and use the land link to transfer the imported goods to Armenia. The Chabahar Trade Route will result in 60% reduction in shipment costs and 50% reduction in shipment time from India to Central Asia. Since Armenia is closer to Iran compared to the Central Asian Republics, Armenia will save more on export and import costs and transfer time, compared to Afghanistan or Tajikistan.
A crucial point to keep in mind, the port of Chabahar is exempt from US sanctions because the Trump Administration deemed it vital for the support of Afghanistan at a time when the total withdrawal of US Forces was not on the bargaining table with The Talibans.
The Western animosity for the Iranian regime, and the obsession to isolate the “Pariah Regime” of the mullahs, have turned the attention of so called Western Democracies on Armenia and serious measures have been taken to convince the Armenian leadership, under Pashinyan, that a partnership with Turkey is the best course of action for the future of Armenia.
In International politics money is the best method to buy allegiances, a fact well known by The US Administration, and a pivotal point in the calculations of The US State Department and the multiple initiatives it took during the last few months to secure Pashinyan’s cooperation with US long-term plans for the region. On June 29, 2022 Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Mher Grigoryan, and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Mission Director for Armenia John Allelo, signed a five year Development Objectives Grant Agreement between the Republic of Armenia and the United States of America, stipulating the transfer of a $120 million grant to Armenia. Supposedly the $120 million dollars will be used to assist The Republic of Armenia “...in establishing effective accountability, maintaining democratic gains, and overcoming economic challenges."
After reading the details of the “noble” goals that motivated the US to provide a $120 million dollar grant, one is ineluctably forced to ask the following question: How can a country such as The US, help Armenia in establishing effective accountability, maintaining democratic gains, and overcoming economic challenges, when the US itself is experiencing serious economic and social upheavals and can hardly cope with the long list of excruciating problems destroying the social fabric of America?
What are the problems and challenges facing America today? The best description was provided a couple of weeks ago by a veteran academic, journalist, and analyst of the American social landscape, Prof. David Moscrop, the author of “Too stupid for democracy? Why we make bad policy decisions and how we can make better ones.”
Here is what Prof. Moscrop has to say about his observation of the American political developments during the last few years:
The United States was founded on chattel slavery and indigenous genocide. Racial segregation, formal and informal, is still entrenched in the country; poor and marginalized Americans have long been abandoned in the absence of a strong welfare state. Today, the state’s apparent contempt for the people it contracts with is impossible to ignore.
Deep inequality, unaffordable and inaccessible basic needs, including health care and education; structural state and individual violence against racialized people; endemic racism and prejudice; catastrophic and routine armed violence; cruel and unusual punishment in the prison system; a coup attempt supported by certain political elites, including the president; gerrymandered constituencies and voter suppression; a partisan Supreme Court whose capacity for majority/counter-majority balance has collapsed by depriving fundamental rights supported by the majority, such as the right to abortion. These are just a few of the failures of the United States, and each one is a major violation of the very purpose of the state…
So, Armenians will be tutored by a country that has failed to address efficiently its own social evils. Pashinyan is saluting the flag of the highest bidder for his services, and knowingly dragging Armenia into the path of Ukrainization of Armenia. After all, the scenario contemplated by The West will unfold according to the following steps:
(a) Normalization with Turkey means also a “Peace Treaty” with Azerbaijan.
(b) If we have peaceful relations with our neighbours we don’t need a strong Armenian Army, because a strong Armenian Army will give rise to the biggest “existential” threat Armenia may encounter, a “Nationalism” controlled by The Diaspora.
(c) Once peace is established in the region, we don’t need the Russian Army’s presence on our territory, and accordingly we will insist to Putin to pull his army out of Armenia.
Pashinyan is failing to realize that Putin will not allow him to play with fire and undermine Russian interests in The Caucasus, especially if The West wants to use “Peace” as a jumping board to bring NATO to the Caucasus via Turkey, harmonize NATO’s interests with Turkish Pan Turanism, spread Pan Turanism to the STAN Republics (Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan,…) and thus create a new powder keg with a faulty timer right at the door step of Russia.
Nikol, you have no clue about the intricate details of dirty international diplomacy, simply because you have always failed to fathom the depth of your own ignorance. You display clearly the impact of the “Dunning-Kruger Effect” (DKE) on your brain. DKE is a cognitive problem whereby individuals with a rudimentary understanding of a complex issue, or limited competence in a specific domain, greatly overestimate their own knowledge or competence, while blindly dismissing the existing high standards that they cannot reach.
Nikol, you parachuted yourself on the international diplomacy scene and offered yourself as a chess piece to the superpowers shaping the destiny of the world. Without grasping the basic rules of betrayal that permeates international diplomacy, you decided to drag your country down the path of “The Ukrainization of The Caucasus”. Look around you, how many divisions did Turkey send to help your neighbour Georgia, during The Russo-Georgian War of 2008? How many Divisions, batallions, or Platoons did The US or France dispatch to Tbilisi in 2008?
Nikol, in international politics the puppet masters will love you as much as they can use you. The moment you outlive your usefulness their loyalties stop and you become a disposable object. Unfortunately, the “Dunning-Kruger Effect” will prevent you from seeing these realities, and the colossal tragedies they can heap on Armenia by insisting that “Normalization” with Turkey is the only “salvation” for the economy of Armenia.
Nikol, it is a tragedy to be born blind. But it is worse to have eyes and yet not see the dangers of playing with fire.
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Notes
India, Iran reaffirm cooperation on Chabahar Port, a key transit hub
India likely to start full operations at Iran's Chabahar port by May end
https://www.reuters.com/article/india-iran-ports-int-idUSKBN2AX1DK
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE, U.S. EMBASSY, Yerevan, Notice of Funding Opportunity
https://www.usa.am/announce/track2.pdf
USAID will provide a $ 120 million grant to the Government of Armenia
https://www.civilnet.am/news/665810/usaid-%D5%A8-120-%D5%B4%D5%AB%D5%AC%D5%AB%D5%B8%D5%B6-%D5%A4%D5%B8%D5%AC%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%AB-%D5%A4%D6%80%D5%A1%D5%B4%D5%A1%D5%B7%D5%B6%D5%B8%D6%80%D5%B0-%D5%AF%D5%BF%D5%A1-%D5%AF%D5%A1%D5%BC%D5%A1%D5%BE%D5%A1%D6%80%D5%B8%D6%82%D5%A9%D5%B5%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A8/
US reaffirms support for democratic development in Armenia: 246th anniversary of US independence marked in Yerevan
America’s social contract with its citizens lies in tatters. What happens next is for Americans to decide By David Moscrop
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