Can Armenia Achieve A Lasting Peace With Turkey?

 

On Nov.03, 2021, the Turkish news agency Anadolu Ajansi (AA) published an article titled “Part of Armenian society favors normalization with Turkey” written by a veteran reporter named Ayse Rabia Sarioglu.

To project the image that the article is strictly an attempt to gauge the “predisposition” of the Armenian society toward the resumption of diplomatic relations with Turkey, and ultimately signing a peace treaty with Turkey and Azerbaijan that will turn Armenia into the land of “Honey and Milk”, Ms. Sarioglu interviews Prof. Benyamin Poghosyan, the director of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies in Yerevan. 

The Master Plan adopted by Ms. Sarioglu of assigning a prominent position in her article for the views expressed by Prof. Poghosyan, covers well the ploy of sending to the key decision makers in Yerevan, the subtle message that a valuable opportunity will be lost with dire consequences for Armenia, if Mr. Pashinyan does not take, in a timely manner, the proper steps to accept the “Olive Branch” extended by Turkey.

At the very end of the article, Ms. Sarioglu delivers the well crafted subtle threat to the Armenian government and nation, via the following statements made in November 2021 during a visit to Baku, by Turkey’s Defense Minister, Hulusi Akar: “...take the hand of peace extended by Turkey and Azerbaijan...There are conflicts and troubles in many parts of the world, but the places where people have come together for talks and to find political solutions are now much safer and more prosperous...If Armenia understands this, makes the necessary contributions and responds positively, serious progress can be made in terms of both security and welfare.” 

Mr. Hulusi Akar, a well-rounded politician, conveniently forgets that a few hundred kilometres away from Ankara, an Arab Israeli conflict, often bloody and brutal, has been going on for decades. In 1978, under intense US diplomatic efforts, Israel and Egypt reached an understanding on the basic formula of “Exchanging Land For Peace”. In 1979 a Peace Accord/Treaty was signed and exchanging land for peace removed permanently Egypt, the country with the largest Arab Army, from the big picture of any future military confrontations with Israel.

Of course the absence of war does not necessarily mean “PEACE” in a region. After more than 4 decades of zero military confrontation with Egypt, Israel has no peace. Why? Because more fundamental issues (The Palestinian Right for statehood being one item on a long agenda of many issues) were trivialized and neglected, to accommodate the security imperatives facing Israel based on assessments disseminated by the Gurus of the Israeli intelligence community.

Applying the realities of the Arab-Israeli conflict to the Caucasus and the bloody results of the First Artsakh War, and the capitulation treaty following Armenia’s defeat in the Second Artsakh War, we can confidently claim to decision makers in Baku and Ankara that temporary absence of war will not automatically pave the way for a peace treaty because too many wrong assumptions are being made by Ankara and Baku, and unless the false assumptions are revisited, reformulated, and repackaged in a way that addresses, in a well balanced fashion, the long-term interests of all concerned State and Non-State actors (Armenian Diaspora), peace will remain elusive at best, and more wars will follow at worst. 

But before we confront some of the warped assumptions that Turkey and Azerbaijan are using to pursue the so called “Peace Building” efforts, we need to mention another Turkish source that is trying to make the Armenian nation more malleable to the notion that a “Peace Loving” nation like Turkey, can maintain strong ties with Azerbaijan while offering Armenia an unprecedented prosperity once the borders are opened following the signature of a peace treaty.

The source we mentioned above is Yeni Şafak (New Dawn), a conservative Islamist Turkish daily newspaper, well known for its blind support for the expansionist policies of Sultan Erdogan, that published an “Expert Opinion”article dated Nov.03/21, titled “Armenia should negotiate with Turkey, Azerbaijan without mediators” using as a mouthpiece Dr. Stepan Grigoryan, the director of the Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation, located in Yerevan.

The Turks are not only pursuing, via the statements of Dr. Grigoryan, the goal of selling to the Armenian nation the idea of “Peace Without Preconditions”, but are suggesting the absurd notion that Armenia will be better off without any Russian involvement in the peace negotiation process. The following are the pearls of wisdom Dr. Grigoryan is trying to dispense to the Armenian nation:

"Armenia has lost the (Karabakh) war and is currently in a weak state. The government has to negotiate with Turkey and Azerbaijan, but this should happen without intermediaries like Russia"

"Turkey follows a serious foreign policy in line with its interests."

Turkey's support and alliance with Azerbaijan is understandable and not open to discussion."

"While doing this, it can establish a reasonable and balanced relationship with Armenia. The same goes for Armenia."

Let us review some of the most serious obstacles that hinder peace and the underlying false assumptions that are shaping the behaviours of both The Doves and The Hawks in each country.

Turkey’s perception of PM Pashinyan’s interest in forging diplomatic ties with Turkey. According to Prof. Benyamin Poghosyan, Pashinyan and his followers “...are in favor of overlooking Turkey’s role in last year’s Karabakh conflict...” and support the moves of the Armenian government to open new channels for dialogue with Turkey and Azerbaijan to achieve peace and usher a new era of economic prosperity that will turn Armenia into an earthly paradise of honey and milk. 

Turkey is making a big mistake by cherishing the warped logic that Pashinyan enjoys a “Popular Mandate” based on the results of the elections  held in June 20, 2021. Of the 2.6 million eligible voters in Armenia slightly less than 49% did cast votes-1,273,859. Out of the 1,273,859 Armenians who performed their civic duty only 687,414 supported Mr. Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party (CCP). 

When 1 out of 4 Armenians supported Mr. Pashinyan and The CCP, how can Turkish policy makers jump to the conclusion that they can negotiate “Peace” and anchor a “Peace Treaty” in a solid foundation with the help of a Prime Minister whose compatriots (3 out of 4) perceive him as a power-hungry opportunist ready to sell on the auction bloc every sacred element of the Armenian national identity? 

Dr. Grigoryan’s twisted logic sees no contradiction in the assertion that Turkey can extend, did extend full military and diplomatic support to Azerbaijan during the Second Artsakh War, and will extend again and again full military support if Azerbaijan becomes the target of any military venture in the future. Yet "While doing this, it can establish a reasonable and balanced relationship with Armenia. A wolf in a sheep’s clothing remains a wolf, and as long as Pan Turkish expansionism is an integral part of Turkish foreign policy, and its military doctrine is based on neutralizing Russian allies (especially Armenia) perceived as an obstacle to reach “The Stan” countries eyed by Turkey (Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan...) Turkey cannot become a genuine peace partner for Armenia. It will remain the biggest existential threat undermining the national security of Armenia. The threats can materialize under the form of military operations by proxy, or a total  ravage of the Armenian economy by dumping cheap Turkish products (agricultural or  consumer goods) that Armenian producers cannot compete with.

 

Also, how can we dismiss very casually the intentions of Sultan Erdogan who proudly wants to emulate the legacy of Sultan Abdulhamid II? On February 10, 2018, during a ceremony marking the centenary of the death of Ottoman Sultan Abdulhamid II held at The Yildiz Palace in Istanbul, Sultan Erdogan proudly declared:“The Republic of Turkey, just like our previous states that are a continuation of one another, is also a continuation of the Ottomans...Of course, the borders have changed. Forms of government have changed... But the essence is the same, soul is the same, even many institutions are the same." 

Sultan Erdogan continued his diatribe against “bigoted” secular Western democracies, that often referred to Abdulahamid II as “The Red Sultan”, by insisting that Abdulhamid II, who slaughtered more than 200,000 Armenians (Hamidian Massacres), was one of the “...most important, most visionary and most strategic minded" ruler that left indelible marks on the political landscape of Turkey for the last 150 years.

Sultan Erdogan concluded his speech by adding the following statement: “Some people insistently try to start this country's history from 1923. Some unrelentingly try to break us from our roots and ancient values...We take pride in our history without making discrimination."

How can we, as a nation (Hayrenik & Diaspora) trust a wolf who is insisting that the Republic of Turkey is nothing but a continuation of The ottoman Empire, and genocidal policies will be dusted off and re-adapted to the new Geo-political realities of the 21^st century if need be?

If Sultan Erdogan wants to build trust or earn the trust of Armenians (Fatherland and Diaspora)

a) He has to renounce expansionism, accept the Genocide of 1915 as a historical fact “not open to discussion” by historians or scholars.

b) Change the denialist history books currently used in Turkish schools and thus remove the veil of ignorance keeping in the dark the majority of Turkey’s population that has no clue about the Genocide of 1915 perpetrated by Ottoman Turkey.

c) Erdogan has to make a historic trip to the Genocide Monument in Yerevan to lay a wreath honoring the memory of the Armenian victims who were massacred by Abdulhamid II, and those who survived the Hamidian massacres became the target of the Genocidal savagery and extermination orchestrated and executed by the Ittihadists. 

d) The bodies of the criminals who perpetrated the Genocide were repatriated to Turkey and honored as “National Heroes” after the establishment of modern Turkey. Sultan Erdogan must classify them as symbols of “Man’s Inhumanity to Man”.

If the proposals made above are accepted and implemented by Sultan Erdogan, then there is a reasonable chance that The State of Armenia, represented by the Government of the day, without any interference from the Diaspora may consider to accept Turkey and Sultan Erdogan as a Bona Fide negotiator of “Peace”.

But it is highly unlikely that the Sultan is interested in peace because he sincerely wants Armenia to enjoy Turkish and Azerbaijani largess in the form of unprecedented economic boom in Armenia. Erdogan is facing a rapidly declining economy in Turkey. Hundreds of Turkish millionaires have transferred their wealth to other countries with more stable currencies, and better protected investments. His cronies closely tied to the construction industry in Turkey, are pressuring him to attract foreign investors willing to pour more than $200 billion USD in the mega reconstruction projects of the seven Azerbaijani districts recovered by Azerbaijan at the end of The Second Artsakh War. 

The Sultan’s failure to attract investors, who are vehemently insisting on a peace treaty before a single penny is thrown into a dangerous zone that can change hand unexpectedly, is not only impeding the recovery of the Turkish Lira and economy, but it is seriously turning 600,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), currently living in Baku since the end of The First Artsakh War, into a powder keg threatening the stability of the Aliyev regime in Azerbaijan.

Pashinyan has yet to realize that he is dealing with a wolf in a sheep’s skin. A wolf who has dipped a poison called “Economic Prosperity” in honey, to make the poison more palatable for a spineless lackey who decided that Artsakh is too much of a burden for Armenia to carry, and  determined that an “Engineered Defeat” can make it easier to throw Artsakh under the bus once and for all. History will prove him wrong.

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