Pashinyan's victory; a prediction based on sheer luck or rational understanding of international relations

 

Many readers reacted negatively to the views expressed in our previous article titled: “Pashinyan's Election Victory; A New Popular Mandate Or Delusions Of Grandeur” .

The range of colourful derisive comments varied greatly from one country to another, and covered a gamut of accusations including the absurd notion that our guessing of Pashinyan's return to power was based on a flip of a coin and/or sheer luck.

The following statement we made was the source of the anger mostly expressed in a vulgar fashion: “Weeks before the elections of June 20, 2021 we had a crystal clear analysis of the course of events in Armenia, and with total confidence we insisted and predicted (in writing) that Pashinyan will win and stay in control of Armenia. Elections results on June 20 confirmed that our analysis was correct...”

To disperse the misconceptions that our editorial team, relies on luck, consults a crystal ball, or organizes spiritual seances to consult the dead and use their spiritual powers to predict the future, an expose of our research techniques will be explained to refute baseless allegations and promote rational thinking in petty minds (ignoramus Neanderthals) that cannot grasp the basic games played by power brokers in international relations. 

 

Many veteran “Intelligence Officers/Analysts” are not afraid to tell you that the best intelligence officer is the librarian who knows where to find openly available information, organize it properly, and analyze it efficiently. Basically, for a fact-based prediction you need to find the proper information, organize it by accuracy and relevance, and last but not least assess the impact of your findings on a future event.

Ever since Johannes Gutenberg invented the first operational printing press in Germany (1450), political pamphleteering (precursor of modern journalism) became a tool used extensively to topple kings, unite a country, launch wars, and pave the way for colonial occupations to control countries rich in natural resources. The pamphleteers or the modern day journalists became part and parcel of every political battle designed to legitimize a ruler or undermine his/her legitimacy. 

Pamphleteers and journalists competed with clerics who were also used and abused by rulers who needed desperately to convince the poor illiterate masses that “Divine Will” was the ultimate source that bestowed legitimacy to their rules. Throughout history, in many empires, the masses strongly believed that The Emperor/King was the “Shadow of God” on earth, and any rebellion against The Emperor or The King was a betrayal of God's will, a move that condemned the rebel to eternal damnation in the flames of Hell.

During the “Cold War” the journalist and the cleric gained prominence on the agendas of many intelligence agencies and both warring camps-liberal democracies headed by the US and The Soviet Union with Eastern European communist allies, used clerics and journalists to advance and protect their vested interests. 

We will provide a few examples of clerics who were famous political actors, and for those who are interested in an in-depth understanding of the roles played by clerics during the cold war, sources and references will be provided at the end of this article.

Archbishop Hilarion Capucci, a Catholic cleric arrested by Israeli security forces on August 18, 1974 for smuggling weapons in his personal vehicle on behalf of The PLO.

Miguel d’Escoto, a catholic priest who fought with the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, and served as a Foreign Affairs Minister in Daniel Ortega's FSLN government from 1979 to 1990.

Ernesto Cardenal Martínez, a Nicaraguan Catholic priest who fought with the Sandinistas and eventually became Nicaragua's Minister of Culture (1979 to 1987).

Archbishop Oscar Romero, a Catholic cleric assassinated during a mass (March 24, 1980) for promoting a “Liberation Theology” in El Salvador and encouraging soldiers to disobey orders requiring the killing of peaceful protesters. The ruling military junta perceived him as a communist agent intent on creating a popular uprising designed to topple the existing dictatorship. Almost three decades after his assassination, The Vatican canonized him as a saint on October 14, 2018. We all know that The Vatican does not canonize communists, and the allegations made by his assassins that he was a communist agent were ridiculous and absurd. The Vatican and The CIA coordinated efforts during the cold war to stop the spread of communism in Europe and Latin America, and Romero hugged sainthood because he was a genuine Christian not because he was influenced by Comandante Ernesto Che Guevara.

As far as the profession of journalism is concerned, during the cold war hundreds of US journalists were working in collusion with The CIA. The same phenomenon existed in The Soviet camp. According to Congressional testimonies and Senate hearings, during the cold war “... some 400 bona fide American journalists had secretly carried out assignments for the ClA ...from simple intelligence gathering to serving as go- betweens with spies in Communist countries. Reporters shared their notebooks with the CIA. Editors shared their staffs.”

Of course the symbiotic relationship between the US Intelligence Community and US journalists did not stop with the end of the cold war and the collapse of The Soviet Union. It is well known in the intelligence world that the spy never runs out of work, and never joins the line ups of laid off workers seeking unemployment benefits.

In the dark universe where the spy applies his craft in total secrecy, he will always find enemies worthy of his attention, and somehow he will manage to convince his political masters that, despite skyrocketing deficits, he needs bigger and bigger budgets to fight the new enemies of The State.

Post disintegration of the Soviet empire Islamic fundamentalism and the war of terror waged by radical Islamists against the infidels of the world in general and The US in particular, were declared the formidable enemies of the free world.

In the war waged by The US against Islamic terrorism following the 9/11 attacks targeting The Twin Towers of New York and The Pentagon, many journalists rose to prominence, but one name-Ken Dilanian attracted a significant amount of contempt and criticism for tarnishing badly the reputation of journalism in America.

Dilanian worked for prestigious news outlets such as LA Times, Associated Press, NBC... Instead of reporting honestly events, he fabricated stories at the behest of The CIA.

When the US political establishment needed a valid excuse to legitimize the invasion of Iraq, The CIA used Dilanian to circulate the false story that Saddam Hussein was providing refuge to high ranking Al Qaeda operatives. When The CIA failed to produce any tangible evidence that Saddam was protecting Al Qaeda operatives, Dilanian was used again to peddle the fire and brimstone end of the world story that the ruler of Iraq had accumulated a substantial amount of weapons of mass destruction, and only a well coordinated military offensive on Iraq would stop the dictator from destroying the world.

After the invasion of Iraq, and a minute scrutiny of every military installation that existed on Iraqi territory, The CIA failed to generate a single shred of evidence supporting the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraqi Army arsenals. Again Dilanian was used to manipulate public opinion, twist the facts, to convince Americans and the rest of the world that an invasion of Iraq was a necessary evil to make the world a safer place by eliminating a brutal dictator who casually massacred thousands of innocent Iraqis.

The Artsakh war, the capitulation trilateral agreement of November 2020, and the elections of June 2021 in Armenia had their own cloak and dagger scenarios involving journalists who gave us substantial hints of how events will end, who will emerge victorious, who will maintain power, and how the future of Armenia will be shaped.

What you need to monitor in the media is the travel activities of prominent journalists who regularly cover a certain geographical area. In the case of the elections of June 2021, many Russian journalists were invited to Baku and a warm welcome was extended by The Presidential Palace to Aliyev's guests. Some of them returned to Armenia, and in the name of producing balanced articles to their news outlets, interviewed high ranking Armenian officials and with tact and diplomacy hinted the name of “Baku’s candidate” or Baku's distinct preference for keeping Pashinyan in full control of Armenia, with the blessings of President Putin.

“Baku's candidate” story would never have worked successfully without attaching a powerful dream or a mythical achievement such as revitalizing the Armenian economy to the name of the candidate. Baku was no longer the hated enemy, but a highly respected neighbour who will help Pashinyan win the war on economic stagnation by ushering an “unprecedented economic prosperity” once the transport corridors are established, and goods and services are supplied at a very competitive price to Armenia.

The journalists who conveyed Baku's likes and dislikes to Armenian political figures were also given time and space in platforms controlled by institutions known as “Think Tanks”/Foundations/Academic Institutes. To eliminate the accusations that a “thin tank” is a mouthpiece of a regime, you will find always at the end of an article advocating a preference for a candidate the following disclaimer: “ The views expressed in this article are strictly those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the institutional position of our organization, its staff, trustees, or Board of Directors.” 

By following articles published by many prestigious institutions monitoring closely the developments in The Caucasus, between April and May 2021 it, was easy to predict with accuracy who the winner will be in June 2021. Our conclusion was not based on luck, flip of a coin, black magic, etc...It was strictly hard work of gathering, analyzing, and disseminating information.

References

"The CIA And The Media”

"Let the pope keep the kingdom and the glory — the CIA wants the power”

"Espionage and the Catholic Church from the Cold War to the Present”

“What Does Pashinyan’s Victory Bode for Armenia and the Region? “

CIA'S use of Journalists And Clergy in Intelligence operations, Report of The US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence”

“How the National Security State Manipulates the News Media”

“L.A. Times Disowns Reporter Outed as a CIA Collaborator”

“The CIA’s Mop-Up Man: L.A. Times Reporter Cleared Stories With Agency Before Publication”

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